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id ddss2008-01
authors Viejo García, Pablo; Christian Keim
year 2008
title Simulation model of heat and power demand in aGerman region until 2030Stuttgart Metropolitan Region as case study
source H.J.P. Timmermans, B. de Vries (eds.) 2008, Design & Decision Support Systems in Architecture and Urban Planning, ISBN 978-90-6814-173-3, University of Technology Eindhoven, published on CD
summary Energy demand is a major concern for the future of European Cities. Resource availability and costs, climate change, and their consequences are directly related with the energy consumption in our cities. In 2007 already more than half of the world population live in cities, and cities are the main consumers of energy. The model presented in this paper explores the possibility of estimate the demand of end energy (heat and power) by simulating with a cellular automaton land use changes in a German region, in this case, Stuttgart Metropolitan Region. Several approaches deal with problems due to data availability, non-spatial information sources, aggregation levels, quality and consistence of data, among others. This case study shows that a non-deterministic simulation model of energy demand related to urban growth is already feasible, with several constraints. Otherwise, the energy demand calculations differ in great manner depending on consumption sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transport) and all these calculation models should be further improved. Software and hardware constraints have been as well identified, and stressed in the conclusions.
keywords Complex systems, Self-organisation, Cellular automata, Geographical information systems, land-use change, end energy demand, energy planning systems
series DDSS
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100%; open Pumain D. (2005) Find in CUMINCAD Hierarchy in Natural and Social Sciences , Dordrecht: Springer

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