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id ddss2008-06
authors Hagen-Zanker, Alex
year 2008
title Sensititivity analysis of a cellular automata land usemodel through multiple metrics of goodness-of-fit
source H.J.P. Timmermans, B. de Vries (eds.) 2008, Design & Decision Support Systems in Architecture and Urban Planning, ISBN 978-90-6814-173-3, University of Technology Eindhoven, published on CD
summary The complexity and self-organizing behaviour of Cellular Automata models makes them attractive instruments for investigating urban change processes. That same complexity, however, obscures the relation between model parameters and model results and poses problems for the calibration of the models as well as the interpretation of results. This paper introduces an approach to sensitivity analysis that untangles much of the complex relation between parameters and outputs. The key of the approach is to find compartments in parameter space on the basis of the relation between multiple metrics of goodness-of-fit. Within individual compartments the relation between parameters and model outputs is less chaotic and open for investigation by more traditional means. The method offers prospects for model calibration and parameter reduction; further steps in these directions are outlined and discussed.
keywords Cellular automata, land use, sensitivity, goodness-of-fit, map comparison
series DDSS
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