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id ddss2008-39
authors Meshitsuka, Yusuke and Yoshitsugu Aoki
year 2008
title Stochastic Transition of Fire-prevention Performanceof Urban Area
source H.J.P. Timmermans, B. de Vries (eds.) 2008, Design & Decision Support Systems in Architecture and Urban Planning, ISBN 978-90-6814-173-3, University of Technology Eindhoven, published on CD
summary The aim of this study is to analyze the tendency of building renewal in order to understand the fire prevention performance of the Tokyo metropolitan area. To this end, firstly, the Tokyo metropolitan area was divided into small areas of 250,000 square meters, and the following stochastic transition matrix of each small area was estimated, 1. Stochastic matrix of state transition between the building use types, 2. Stochastic matrix of state transition between the structures of buildings. Secondly, the converged state of each small area was estimated with a Markov chain model. Finally, small areas where fire prevention performance will change for the better/constant/worse were pointed out from their converged states. The results suggest that in small areas where percentage of housing and commerce are increasing, the fire prevention performance will become worse.
keywords Urban Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, Earthquake Fire, Stochastic Transition Matrix
series DDSS
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100%; open Yoshitsugu Aoki (1987) Find in CUMINCAD Stochastic one-dimensional discrete space model for urban fire spread: A theoretical analyses on stochastic spread of fire in urban area; Part 1 , Journal of Archit. Plann. Environ. Engng, AIJ, No.381, pp. 111-121

100%; open Yusuke Meshitsuka (2007) Find in CUMINCAD A study of changes of fire-prevention performance using transition probability matrix of building use and structure , Journal of Archit. Plann., AIJ, No.612, pp. 93-98

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